Craig Hemke – Macro Thoughts On Interest Rates, The US Dollar, Inflation, Gold, And PM Mining Stocks
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to share his thoughts on the macroeconomic trends with interest rates, the US Dollar, inflation expectations, gold, and the precious metals mining stocks. It’s a broad discussion that gets into the nuances of recent pricing action in the markets, but also the longer-term value drivers for each market segment.
We also review the difference in motivations and expectations between investing in gold as a store of longer-term value, versus speculating in the junior gold stocks. We wrap up pondering if the some of the competing “hot-money” speculative market segments, like cryptos and AI stocks, have taken attention away from the mining stocks, and if there could just be too many mining stocks in the sector for investors to sort through.
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A Mid-Year Update from Tom Luongo
Craig Hemke – TF Metals Report (07/06/2023)
“Longtime friend and Turdite Tom Luongo stops by today to provide a mid-year update. In our most recent discussion, Tom suggested that The Fed was going to keep rates higher for longer and, thus far, he has been absolutely correct. So where do things head from here?”
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/12167/special-podcast-mid-year-update-tom-luongo
Two turds from the school of hard knocks.
Craig & Tom Luongo provide a very provocative discussion. The ‘ole proverb, “Be with wise people and maybe you become wise” comes to mind…..part of why I check this site frequently.
Do Soaring Interest Rates Even Matter For Non-profitable Tech Companies
Thursday July 6, 2023 – Zero Hedge
“Until today’s mini rout, traders were starting to wonder if anything they learned in Finance 101 even mattered anymore: after all, one of the core tenets of modern finance and monetary theory is that higher rates make (unprofitable) tech stocks less valuable due to the higher discount factor that one must apply on their (eventual) future cash flows as well as the terminal value (if any). And yet, with 2Y yields higher rising to the highest level since June 2007, the recent surge in non-profitable tech companies is quite eyebrow raising.”
“As Goldman trader Louis Miller notes, the bank’s nonprofitable tech basket basket (GSXUNPTC Index) is up 26% since early May vs the S&P 500 Ex Top 7 (GSCMSPY7 Index) as high beta stocks and tech stocks have soared thanks to the ridiculous AI euphoria. This has also happened with 10Y real rates rising, but now that they are back through 2022 highs, is the peak hawkishness narrative going to stay with us given stronger data and higher rates?”
Zincx Resources closes Private Placement with Ross Beaty, it seems that two of the biggest entrepreneurs in the mining business The Lundin Family and Ross Beaty like zinc. The Lundin’s you may recall bought into Fireweed zinc about a year ago. Maybe zinc is more attractive a play than many think. DT
I like Aussie coal
On July 12th the Bank of Canada will be raising the interest rate another 0.25%. I know that Canada hasn’t suffered a mortgage melt down in 33 years but now I can’t see the overinflated housing market here escaping a housing bubble bust. Add in all the new taxes especially the carbon taxes and the affects of inflation, the consumer is going to really get hit in their wallet. DT
As Larry Fink characterizes bitcoin as “Digital Gold”, and so many in the sector seem to lament the current state of precious metals, as compared to crypto and AI etc., as just “not sexy” — was wondering if you might get someone on your show who was more fluent in how gold might be combined with the 21st century economy, for example, with crypto as in gold-backed crypto. Or, and I don’t really understand how it works, but there is a company called Kinesis (among others????), I believe, where you purchase ounces of physical gold, they store it for you free of charge, then essentially act as a bank and issue you a debit card that you can use to purchase goods and services, much like a standard debit card, and your charges are deducted from the value of the gold they hold for you. I believe they make money on the transaction fees and you own actual physical gold with the advantage of having your “stored gold” as a truly liquid/readily available/instant/go to the grocery store asset. If gold goes up the value, your account goes up, less purchases of course. And if gold goes down your account loses value. I find it an interesting concept and would be inclined to buy a few ounces and try it out, if I was convinced it was secure and worked. If a concept like this became popular, especially now in times of economic uncertainty and inflation; this company would hold considerable amounts of physical gold — a boon to the sector, right? If some creative thinkers, thinking outside the box, can somehow articlate to millennials and gen-xers exactly how much sense it might make, to go out and pay for a meal with your “gold account” that went up 2% against the dollar last week because your actual/real/physical gold was up 2% while virtual/ethereal bitcoin was down over $1000, maybe/perhaps, gold might become “sexy” again?????
FREAKY FRIDAY AGAIN……………
Larry Fink…..likes bitcoin….. humm
SCOTUS…… thinking about SEC regulation of bitcon,..not,….humm
FFA, Cryptocurrencies several months ago lost $2.3 trillion in value, that is a lot of cash that investors saw going to money heaven. The world debt bomb is over $300 trillion dollars and that pales in comparison to several quadrillion dollars in derivatives that are sitting on the books. The Chinese are dumping American treasuries and buying gold. When The Brics announce a gold backed currency at the end of August what do you think will happen to the US dollar? LOL! DT
Dollar going to 88.8 , Lucky “8s” …for the chinese….
https://catalog.usmint.gov/paper-currency/lucky-money-collection/
Remember……… this is JtheLong…. 🙂
Seriously………….humm
Economy adds 209K jobs in June, unemployment at 3.6 percent
The U.S. added 209,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate dipped to 3.6 perent, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.
Economists expected the U.S. to add roughly 240,000 jobs last month and for the jobless rate to fall to 3.6 percent, according to consensus estimates, down from 3.7 percent in May.
BIG drop in volumes etc. for trading in the TMX group. Alpha Index trading has crashed…
TSX.v as it moves through the itchy cloud.
IMHO this year’s volume on the above chart will be an inverse of last year’s volume, maybe for a solid increase over the next few months to sell and buy a bit or hold yer nose through… going over 700 might help get the volume knob turning up!;-)
https://rumble.com/v2wtmza-goldseek-radio-nugget-bob-moriarty.html
Jul 07 GoldSeek Radio Nugget — Bob Moriarty: Gold and Silver Headed Much Higher rumble
HIVE.v block chain tech… overbought much?
The RSI still has room … only around 86. Wiley Coyote before reality sets in.
The weekly has more room to the upside…
I feel like I am being set up as a bag holder. In view of the level of false rhetoric coming from the Government elected to protect us, I might be more right than wrong.
Baghdad!!!!!!!!!!!!! DT
De Grey Mining Ltd has announced buying 35 million shares of Novo Resources, Novo is now selling for 20 cents CDN a share, what an irony this would be if De Grey takes over Novo. Eat, Eat, Eat, if you aren’t aggressive in the mining industry you will be swallowed whole. Dr. Q is a nice guy and a very smart geologist but in the real world that sometimes counts for very little, the survival of the fittest! DT
https://money.tmx.com/quote/NVO/news/4720377913998769/De_Grey_Mining_Ltd_Announces_Increased_Investment_in_Novo_Resources_Corp